HALF a century of research has shown that people do not always follow the “rational” rules of classical probability theory when making decisions, particularly under conditions of uncertainty.

For all the deference to “laws” of nature that supposedly govern everything that happens, the truth is that randomness rules the world. Everywhere you look, randomness is at work, in all the processes ...

Classical probability theory assumes an equal likelihood for all outcomes. For example, if you were to flip a coin, there's an equal change of it landing on "heads" or "tails." Microsoft Excel offers ...

A team of international physicists has brought Bayes’ centuries-old probability rule into the quantum world. By applying the “principle of minimum change” — updating beliefs as little as possible ...

This paradoxical human behavior has resisted explanation by classical decision theory for over a decade. But now, scientists have shown that a quantum probability model can provide a simple ...

The conjunction and disjunction fallacies are famous for revealing the limits of human reasoning about probability. This can be measured by telling people a short story about a character and then ...